特写独家！美联储降息之路困难重重：通胀与增长两难抉择

美联储降息之路困难重重：通胀与增长两难抉择

北京 - 美联储主席鲍威尔日前在国会听证会上表示，美联储将继续采取行动抑制通胀，但不会急于降息。这番表态令市场对美联储未来货币政策走向更加迷茫。

自2022年以来，美联储已累计加息6次，联邦基金利率目标区间从0-0.25%提升至3-3.25%。美联储此举旨在抑制高企的通胀。然而，加息也可能导致经济增长放缓，甚至陷入衰退。

鲍威尔表示，美联储的目标是在控制通胀的同时维持经济增长。这并非易事，需要权衡利弊。

通胀居高不下，美联储继续加息

美国5月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上升8.6%，仍处于高位。美联储官员预计，通胀将在今年年底有所下降，但仍将高于美联储2%的目标。

为了抑制通胀，美联储需要继续加息。美联储理事沃什表示，美联储可能在7月份和9月份再次加息50个基点。

经济增长放缓，市场担忧衰退

美联储加息导致借贷成本上升，抑制了企业和消费者的投资和消费需求。美国经济增长在今年第一季度出现萎缩，令市场担忧经济是否会陷入衰退。

一些经济学家认为，美联储加息过于激进，可能会导致经济硬着陆。他们呼吁美联储放缓加息步伐，甚至降息以刺激经济增长。

美联储面临两难抉择

美联储目前面临着进退两难的困境。如果继续加息，可能导致经济衰退；如果放缓加息步伐，则可能令通胀继续高企。

鲍威尔表示，美联储将密切关注经济数据，并根据需要调整货币政策。

美联储未来走向仍不明朗

美联储未来如何抉择，仍有待观察。市场人士预计，美联储将在今年下半年放缓加息步伐，但仍有可能在2025年降息。

以下是一些可能影响美联储决策的因素：

• 通胀走势：如果通胀继续快速下降，美联储可能会放缓加息步伐。
• 经济增长情况：如果经济出现衰退迹象，美联储可能会降息以刺激经济增长。
• 全球经济形势：如果全球经济出现下滑，美联储可能会采取更宽松的货币政策。

美联储的货币政策走向将对全球经济产生重大影响。

A Wave of "Kete Valuation" Sweeps Through the Market: 50 Stocks Poised for Strong Growth

Shanghai, China - June 17, 2024 - A recent surge in investor sentiment towards growth stocks, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors, has been dubbed the "Kete Valuation" phenomenon, named after the Chinese pharmaceutical company C-Bridge (6160.HK). This trend is reminiscent of the "CATL Valuation" rally that occurred in 2021, driven by the strong performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300015.SZ).

The "Kete Valuation" is characterized by a sharp increase in the share prices of companies with promising growth prospects, often defying broader market trends. This is evident in the recent performance of 50 stocks identified by analysts as having significant growth potential. These stocks, spanning various industries including healthcare, technology, and consumer goods, have exhibited remarkable resilience amidst recent market volatility.

Factors Driving the "Kete Valuation"

Several factors are contributing to the "Kete Valuation" trend. Firstly, investors are increasingly seeking out companies that can deliver sustainable growth, particularly in the face of global economic uncertainties. Secondly, the easing of monetary policy in major economies is providing a supportive backdrop for riskier assets like growth stocks. Additionally, advancements in technology and innovation are creating new opportunities for companies in various sectors, fueling investor optimism.

Key Beneficiaries of the "Kete Valuation"

Among the 50 stocks identified as potential beneficiaries of the "Kete Valuation," C-Bridge (6160.HK) stands out as a frontrunner. The company's innovative cancer therapies and strong pipeline of new drugs have attracted significant investor interest. Other notable stocks include:

• Ascletis Pharma (1672.HK): A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for cancer and viral diseases.

• Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.SZ): A leading provider of comprehensive eye care services in China.

• Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK): A global technology company known for its smartphones, smart home devices, and internet services.

Investment Implications

The "Kete Valuation" presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the growth potential of select companies. However, careful due diligence is crucial, as not all growth stocks are created equal. Investors should thoroughly evaluate a company's financial health, competitive landscape, and long-term growth prospects before making investment decisions.

The "Kete Valuation" highlights the evolving dynamics of the Chinese stock market, where investors are increasingly discerning and seeking out companies with genuine growth potential. This trend is likely to continue as China's economy transitions towards a more innovation-driven and knowledge-based model.